We know Apple was hoping to sell a lot of iPhones this holiday season. What we don’t know — and probably won’t until next month’s Macworld Expo keynote at the earliest — is just how many Apple did sell.
The folks at 9to5Mac think the answer to that last question is “A lot.” With “a lot” specifically totaling about 5 million. 9to5Mac expects that figure to be bandied about during Steve Jobs’ January 15 Expo keynote. As the blog notes, that would put Apple halfway toward its stated goal of 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008.
9to5Mac bases that 5 million figure on the word of unnamed insiders, so take the report with however many grains of NaCl you care to use. You’ll remember the doom-and-gloom that surfaced after analysts got ahead of themselves projecting voluminous iPhone sales for the device’s opening weekend and Apple wound up reporting sales of “just” 270,000 phones. So it’s not as if there isn’t the potential for lofty projections to create unrealistic projections if the still-impressive numbers don’t live up to the forecasts.
While I'm sure there will be a lot of attention regarding whatever the sales figure is, what's more important is the revised sales projection through the end of 2008. Even at its introduction, the 10 million figure seemed a bit conservative. I would not be surprised if that projection is revised upward. Of course, another item that will be closely watched is the sales of the other iPod products. While iPhone is more profitable than the rest of the line (because of the revenue sharing agreement) it would be worrying for the company if the iPhone took a noticeable bite out of iPod sales. If, on the other hand, iPod (particularly Touch) sales stayed consistent with historic trends, then the Street will be reassured.